NFL Betting - Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Week 17

NFL Betting - Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Week 17

December 27, 2019

The New England Patriots might already have secured a playoff berth for the 11th consecutive season, but Tom Brady and company still have plenty to play for in their regular season finale against the rebuilding Miami Dolphins on Sunday. You see, New England can lock down a first-round bye in the playoffs by beating the division rival Dolphins on Sunday, while a loss, combined with a Chiefs win would drop the Pats down to No. 3 and force them to play an opening round wild card contest. With a ton riding on the line in this affair, let’s find out if the Pats can take care of business in this week 17 NFL Betting.

Dolphins vs Patriots NFL 2019 Week 17

  • When?: Sunday, December 29, 2019 at 1:00 PM ET
  • Where?: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
  • Dolphins vs Patriots Live: CBS
  • NFL Opening Odds: New England -16 / Total: 45

Why Bet On Miami (4-11)

The Dolphins might be decisive road dogs in this matchup, but they are getting a ton of points and they’ve shown some real fight down the stretch by winning four of their last eight including a thrilling 38-35 overtime win over Cincinnati last weekend. The Dolphins have scored 37 points or more in two of their last four and would like nothing better than to play spoiler against the longtime AFC East champs.

“I know this about (Belichick): He’s going to try to beat the heck out of us,” Dolphins head coach and former Patriots assistant Brian Flores said. “And he knows this about me: We’re going to do the same.”

The bad news is that the Dolphins are just 1-6 on the road this season and have allowed at least 31 points in five of the last six contests.

  • Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
  • Dolphins are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 road games.
  • Dolphins are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 17.

Why Bet On New England (12-3)

The Patriots might be giving up a ton of points in this one, but with a first round bye on the line, you can expect to see Tom Brady and the rest of New England’s starters, at least until a victory is assured. The Patriots should also be highly motivated after struggling down the stretchy by dropping two of their last four, even though they got past Buffalo 24-17 in a hard-fought affair last weekend.

“Look, this is very simple now. Miami is a playoff game,” head coach Bill Belichick said. “If we beat Miami, then we get a bye. If we don’t, then we’ll be playing the next week. So, it’s a playoff game.”

The Pats have won all five games this season against their AFC East division rivals while coming into their finale ranked sixth in scoring (26.4 ppg) and first in points allowed (13.2 ppg).  New England has gone 6-2 at home this season.

  • Patriots are 22-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Patriots are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 17.
  • Patriots are 42-19-3 ATS in their last 64 home games.
  • Patriots are 48-23-1 ATS in their last 72 games overall.
  • Patriots are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games following a straight up win.
  • Patriots are 39-19-3 ATS in their last 61 games as a home favorite.
  • Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.

Expert Analysis and Prediction Dolphins vs Patriots

If you didn’t know before, now you do. New England has won 10 in a row at home against the Dolphins and Miami has gone  2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings against New England and a winless 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road dates against the Pats. While the favorite in this AFC East rivalry has gone 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings and the home team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings, the Patriots are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games in December and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. With Miami going 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against their AFC rivals and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall, I like Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Fins to get the narrow ATS cover in this one!

Pick: New England 31 Miami 20